As much as
any announcement from the EU can generate enormous anticipation, the proposed
renewable energy targets for member states has been eagerly awaited by our
climate change team. It’s been pretty much public knowledge for some time what the
target for the UK is expected to be but never the less, being told to produce 15
per cent of our energy from renewable sources by 2020 will necessarily kick-start
a clean energy revolution - currently our renewable energy total is less than 3
per cent, just behind Malta in the EU league table.

The
targets are being proposed for each country using a formula based on a number
of factors such as current renewable energy capacity and gross domestic
product, and while 15 per cent might not sound like a great deal, remember
we’re talking about total energy, not just electricity.

Total
energy includes heating and transport and, because the potential for
introducing renewable sources into these sectors is much more limited, the bulk
of our share will come from generating electricity. That means that in 12 years
time, the UK
will have to produce 40 per cent of its juice from wind, wave, tidal and the
rest.

This will
be a massive challenge - even though we have the greatest potential for
renewable energy in Europe, we generate less
than 5 per cent of our electricity from renewables - but it can be done. Last
month, business secretary John Hutton said he wanted to put policies in place
to encourage the development of 25 gigawatts from offshore wind by 2020.
There’s 8GW already planned plus a further 8GW from onshore wind stuck in
planning hell, so that’s 41GW in total. If all of that comes into play, 30 per
cent of our electricity would come just from wind power.

And then
there’s wave and tidal power. Figures produced by the government indicate that
12-13 per cent of our electricity could be produced from marine sources (as estimated in a 2006 report by the Carbon Trust and in the 2003 energy white paper - pdf). Add
that to the wind figures and we’re already well over 50 per cent by the magic
2020 date, even without other sources such as biomass, solar and geothermal. So
the EU’s target is not the quantum leap it might appear, and we have to exceed it to bring greenhouse gas emissions down even further.

What about
the expected ‘energy gap’? There’s a panic in some circles caused by the
inevitable closure of antiquated fossil fuel stations that don’t meet modern
air pollution standards and nuclear power stations at the end of their working
life; this gap is expected to represent around 30 per cent of our total
electricity supply, so the 40 per cent target will leave us with change to
spare. We won’t need those new coal-fired power stations then.

Neither
will we need the nuclear power stations the government is so keen to build. The
first of these won’t be ready until 2021 at the earliest, so if that 40 per cent
target is reached by 2020… well, you can do the maths. Don’t worry unduly
about rising fuel bills, either. The recent upward trend has been mainly caused
by rocketing wholesale prices for gas and oil, whereas a greater abundance of
renewable energy installations will protect us from the vagaries of the global
energy markets.

Despite
attempts to scupper the deal (as revealed in leaked government documents),
Gordon Brown has since reaffirmed his commitment to the EU targets, however
there is the danger that the government could try to buy its way out of any
shortfalls. By trading with other countries to take advantage of their excess
renewable capacity, there’s the chance that the 40 per cent target could
severely undermined. But the embarrassment at not being able to make the
target, not to mention the further damage to any pretence at global leadership
on climate change, will hopefully make Brown and any successors think twice
before making any attempt to cook the books.

Even when the proposals are announced later today, they won’t be
set in stone as yet. The proposals - which also include reforms to the EU emissions
trading scheme and standards for carbon capture and storage (CCS) plants - need
to be formally adopted before they go to the European parliament to be debated
and amended. We can expect an agreement anytime between the end of this year
and next, but that’s no reason to wait until then before putting clean energy policies in
place.